Benin will head to the polls on Sunday for parliamentary and local government elections, a crucial test for the country’s political stability just one month after a failed coup attempt unsettled the West African nation.
The elections are widely expected to strengthen the hold of President Patrice Talon’s ruling coalition, which already dominates the National Assembly. Talon’s three-party alliance currently controls 81 of the 109 seats and is forecast to gain further ground amid a fragmented opposition.
The main opposition party, the Democrats, has been excluded from the local elections and from the presidential race scheduled for April after failing to secure the required endorsement signatures. While the party is contesting the parliamentary vote, analysts say it risks suffering additional losses.
Sunday’s polls come against the backdrop of heightened political tension following the December 7 attempted coup, when a group of mutinous soldiers briefly challenged the government before being swiftly overpowered by the military, with support from Nigeria and France.
Although President Talon, 67, is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, his influence looms large. His preferred successor, Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni, has emerged as the frontrunner ahead of the April presidential election.
Wadagni is expected to face only one challenger — Paul Hounkpe of the FCBE party — a moderate opposition group that has entered cooperation agreements with parties in the ruling coalition. FCBE candidates running in Sunday’s parliamentary elections are also expected to align with Talon’s bloc if elected.
Beyond politics, security concerns are expected to weigh heavily on voters’ minds. Northern Benin has experienced increasing attacks by jihadist groups linked to Al-Qaeda, spilling over from neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger.
While Talon’s administration has been credited with delivering strong economic growth over nearly a decade in office, critics accuse the government of tightening restrictions on opposition parties and civil liberties.
A constitutional amendment passed in November extended the presidential term from five to seven years while maintaining a two-term limit.
After Sunday’s legislative elections and the April presidential poll, Benin will not hold another nationwide election for several years — a development the Democrats have criticised as placing “freedoms in quarantine”.
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