The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), had predicted early rains in the south, uneven rainfall across the north, and above-average temperatures nationwide in 2026 forecast.
Delivering a keynote speech at the launch of the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) in Abuja, Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, explained that rainfall will start earlier than usual in states including Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa and Oyo.
He cautioned that recent showers in the south should not be mistaken for the official start of the rainy season and urged farmers to rely on NiMet’s forecast dates.
“Central states should expect rains between April 21 and May 15, while most northern states will likely see the onset between June 18 and June 23,” Keyamo said.
The Minister also highlighted the varied cessation of the rainy season, which is expected to end earlier than normal in Oyo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi and Niger states, but linger longer in Lagos, Nasarawa and Bayelsa.
According to him, these shifting timelines could disrupt agriculture, water supply and disaster preparedness.
NiMet also predicts near-normal annual rainfall across much of the country, but above-average rainfall in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom and the Federal Capital Territory.
“Conversely, parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun may see below-normal totals.” He maintained
The forecast also warns of prolonged dry spells. Between March and May, parts of Oyo and Ogun could face severe dry spells exceeding 15 days, while several southern and central states may experience moderate dry spells.
It states that from June to August, dry spells of up to 21 days are expected in some northern and central regions, posing risks to crops at critical growth stages.
The “August Break,” or Little Dry Season, is projected to be severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo, with 28 to 40 days of minimal rainfall”. He concluded
Earlier, NiMet’s Director-General, Prof. Charles Anosike, said temperatures are expected to remain above long-term averages in early 2026, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves and extreme weather events.
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He urged state governments to partner with NiMet to downscale forecasts for local farmers and communities, noting that the agency is expanding digital advisory services to improve access to timely climate information.
Prof Anosike however, called on stakeholders in agriculture, water management, and disaster response to use the SCP for planning, investment, and risk reduction as climate variability intensifies across Nigeria.
Highlights of the event included goodwill messages from various stakeholders and testimonials from farmers who have benefited from NiMet’s climate and weather predictions.
Reporting By Julian Osamoto
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