China’s population has continued to shrink for a fourth consecutive year, underscoring the limits of government efforts to reverse a historic decline in births.
Official data released on Monday showed the population fell by 3.39 million in 2025, bringing the total to about 1.4 billion.
Births dropped to a record low of 5.63 per 1,000 people — the lowest since the Communist Party came to power in 1949 — while the death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000, its highest level since 1968.
Beijing has rolled out a series of measures to encourage marriage and childbearing as it grapples with a rapidly ageing population and slower economic growth.
The government ended the one-child policy in 2016, raised the limit to three children per couple in 2021, and has recently introduced cash incentives, including payments of 3,600 yuan for each child under the age of three.
Despite the incentives, China’s fertility rate remains among the lowest in the world, at around one birth per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1.
Some policies have also sparked debate, including a new 13% tax on contraceptives, which has raised concerns about public health and unintended pregnancies.
Many young Chinese say deeper social pressures are holding them back from having children, citing the high cost of living and childcare. Experts at the United Nations warn the trend is likely to continue, projecting that China could lose more than half of its population by the end of the century.
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